If climate change continues as projected under the emissions scenario used in the modelling, this will present severe challenges regarding the loss of chill accumulation. There is a wide range of stone fruit cultivars available with differing chill requirements, so the situation for this industry will depend on whether new climates can be matched with suitable cultivars. The following approaches to adaptation can be considered by growers:
- For current sensitive (high- to medium-chill) cultivars, seek new, cooler microsites on farms where chill unit thresholds are still met i.e. establish such cultivars in cooler drainage lines, south-facing slopes, higher altitudes, and other terrain features that are cooler; this requires a very good understanding (preferably backed up by monitoring data) of the microclimate of the land in question;
- Optimise or introduce the application of chemical rest-breaking agents, including on fruit species that are not currently sprayed;
- Gradually adopt lower chill cultivars within each fruit type to replace the higher chill ones;
- Gradually plant or increase the plantings of lower chill fruit species;
- Identify sensitive cultivars and fruit types that must be gradually phased out on a specific farm as they become commercially unviable;
- Expand/diversify or move the enterprise to new cooler production regions.