Climate Change and the Pome/Stone Fruit Industries
The year 2020 was tied with 2016 as the hottest years globally since measurements began. This is extremely worrying, since the five warmest years in the period 1880-2019 have all occurred since 2015, and 9 out of the 10 hottest years have occurred since 2005. The world’s climate is changing fast because of human activities causing steady increases in atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide. The observed (and scientifically verified) changes can no longer be ignored and are set to continue over the next few decades. The questions for South African agriculture are: What does the climate of the foreseeable future look like? What aspects of climate are changing the fastest and pose the most risk to farming? What can farmers do about it?
Pome and stone fruit growers in South Africa are already experiencing the impacts of rising temperatures and increasingly unpredictable seasonal weather patterns. The recent evidence lies in more years with low rates of winter chill accumulation, a sequence of years with low fruit set in spring associated with erratic weather patterns, high sunburn incidence in summer, and poor red colour development in autumn. Shifts in rainfall patterns have been observed and the severe drought of 2015-2018 had significant negative impacts on the pome and stone fruit industries. More warm spells, and at times record heat, have caused more rapid soil drying and have increased the irrigation demand. These changes are depressing the commercial pome and stone fruit production potential and profitability. While climatic challenges have always existed, the scientific consensus is that climate change is a “threat multiplier”, i.e. it increases the likelihood and severity of such events. Over time, unless measures are taken, climate change could threaten the sustainability of the sector.
The pome and stone fruit industries need to overcome these climatic barriers and become more resilient by adapting to the changing climate. Timeous planning can also help growers to identify opportunities that climate change may offer. Effective adaptation can minimise the impacts on orchard operations, productivity and profitability; protect farm infrastructure, long-term investments and livelihoods; and help to grow the industry in the face of this and other threats. This requires a good science-based understanding of the trends and future projections of key climatic variables and their impacts on fruit production.
This tool is intended for pome and stone fruit growers and their technical advisors across South Africa. While some maps cover the whole country, or selected summer rainfall provinces, the majority of maps cover the Western Cape Province with the entire Langkloof valley. This region accounts for more than three-quarters of national pome and stone fruit production.