Method
Mean Annual Temperature
Mean annual temperature (MAT, in °C) represents the very broadest of indices of the environmental status of a location. Although it integrates and smooths the effects of diurnal, monthly and seasonal patterns of maximum and minimum temperatures, it is nevertheless used as a general first guide to determine the suitability of a location for specific crops.
MAT was calculated from daily temperatures. More detail is provided in the section Background: Climate Change Modelling.
The modelling for the intermediate future (2050s) was conducted using five different CMIP3 GCMs (Schulze, 2011).
Maps
Map Information
In the following maps, mean annual temperature (°C) is presented under historical climatic conditions, under intermediate future climatic conditions (2050s), and as the projected change from the historical climatic conditions to the intermediate future.
Model projections for the intermediate future display marked increases in MAT. The increases are up to 2.0°C along the southern coast to approximately 2.6°C in the northern interior and north-east.
The anticipated increase in MAT will likely lead to spatial shifts in production areas and shifts in the fruit types and cultivars that are suited to specific regions. In broad terms, such shifts could see the warmest production regions becoming unsuitable for deciduous fruit production, and cooler production regions becoming more suitable for fruit crops with a higher temperature tolerance.